There are so many different articles out there about the current real estate market and predictions for the future. Yahoo Finance exclaims how the “Housing market bounces back.” CNBC touts how “Existing home sales at their fastest pace since March 2018.” The Los Angeles Times reports that “Southern California home sales and prices perked up in July.” It is understandable how many homeowners who list their homes for sale have high expectations. The trouble is that none of these headlines apply to the luxury market or, more importantly, your specific market.
Headlines can be confusing. They seem to paint a strong housing market. However, they are NOT reporting on a specific city or market within a city; what the headlines describe is the overall market.
Specifically in in San Bernardino County, homes priced over $650,000 are more on the sluggish side. Weekend open houses are not flooded with potential buyers. Multiple offers are extremely rare. It is not uncommon to go a week, or even weeks, without a single buyer touring a luxury home. There is very little buyer competition.
It is important to note that every home within a city and a market is unique. Your real estate agent is your ally and expert when it comes to the nuances in the real estate market.
Having said that...let's take a look at the San Bernardino County Housing Market Summary for September:
- The active listing inventory decreased by 57 homes in the past two weeks, down 1%, and now totals 6,505. Last year, there were 5,867 homes on the market, 638 fewer than today, 10% less.
- Demand, the number of new pending sales over the prior month, increased by 10 pending sales in the past two-weeks, nearly unchanged, and now totals 2,212. Last year, there were 1,952 pending sales, 12% fewer than today.
- The average list price for all of San Bernardino County remained at $477,000 in the past two-weeks.
- For homes priced below $300,000, the market is a slight Seller’s Market (between 60 and 90 days) with an expected market time of 81 days. This range represents 36% of the active inventory and 39% of demand.
- For homes priced between $300,000 and $400,000, the expected market time is at 77 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 23% of the active inventory and 26% of demand.
- For homes priced between $400,000 and $500,000, the expected market time is at 77 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 15% of the active inventory and 18% of demand.
- For homes priced between $500,000 and $650,000, the Expected Market Time is at 78 days, a slight Seller’s Market. This range represents 12% of the inventory and 11% of demand.
- For luxury homes between $650,000 to $800,000, in the past two-weeks, the Expected Market Time increased from 150 to 151 days. For homes priced between $800,000 to $1 million, the Expected Market Time increased from 170 to 201 days. For homes priced above $1 million, the Expected Market Time decreased from 350 to 335.
- The luxury end, all homes above $650,000, accounts for 13% of the inventory and only 6% of demand.
In summary, expect the inventory to continuously fall through the Autumn Market. Which shall pick up steam and shed a lot of homes during the Holiday Market, from Thanksgiving through the end of the year. For the remainder of the Autumn Market expect demand (pending sales) to slowly drop. Just as the inventory, demand will pick up steam and then drop more swiftly during the holidays.
The market overall in the last 7 years has seen a 60% increase for detached single value homes. This is the first year where we have seen very little appreciation in comparison. Many people believe we are at a peak and buyers are waiting for the market come down. However, they will continue to wait...and wait. They may even miss out on a great opportunity given interest rates are under 4%. In fact, interest rates are predicted to also stay around the 4% mark probably through the end of next year. That will also help keep housing more affordable than it was back in 2007 when interest rates were 6.35% prior to the Great Recession.
If you would like more information on a specific city or market, send give us a call/text at 909-631-0006 or email at pamela@briggsteamrealty.com. We’re always glad to help.
